Zukunftsfragen der Entwicklungspolitik
Due to changes in the world, new challenges for the development agenda arise. This research project aimed at giving European development actors insight to long-term trends in global development by evaluating methods and analysing future development challenges. The focus was laid on changes on the African continent in the next decades.
Projektleitung:
Dirk Messner
Projektteam:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Marthe Roch
Finanzierung:
Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ)
Zeitrahmen:
2007 - 2011
/
Abgeschlossen
Projektbeschreibung
The aim of this research project was to identify long-term trends in global development in order to inform thinking among European development actors on how to prepare for a changing development agenda and a changing world. A first component of the research project involved evaluating how future-oriented (and especially scenario analysis) methods might be applied to gain insight on the changing development context. The focus of the second main component of the research project was on analysing future development challenges by exploring potential changes on the African continent in the coming decades. This stage of the project, carried out in cooperation with researchers elsewhere in Europe and in Africa, involved examining how important drivers of change (demography, technological change, climate change, new actors in international development, internal political transformation, and global governance processes) could impact African development over the long-term. These studies of drivers of change will inform the construction of several scenarios on Africa’s future toward 2030.
Publikationen
- Predicting social tipping points: current research and the way forward
Grimm, Sonja / Gerald Schneider(2011)
Discussion Paper 8/2011 - Responding to global development challenges: views from Brazil and India
Stuenkel, Oliver(2010)
Discussion Paper 11/2010 - Counting CO2 emissions in a globalised world: producer versus consumer-oriented methods for CO2 accounting
Bruckner, Martin / Christine Polzin / Stefan Giljum(2010)
Discussion Paper 9/2010 - Consolidation or cooperation: the future of EU development cooperation
Gavas, Mikaela / Deborah Johnson / Simon Maxwell(2010)
Discussion Paper 6/2010 - Global energy and environmental scenarios: implications for development policy
Willenbockel, Dirk(2009)
Discussion Paper 8/2009 - Country classifications for a changing world
Harris, Dan / Mick Moore / Hubert Schmitz(2009)
Discussion Paper 9/2009 - International relations in 2030: the transformative power of large developing countries
Phillips, Lauren M.(2008)
Discussion Paper 3/2008 - Building long-term scenarios for development: the methodological state of the art with an application to foreign direct investment in Africa
Lundsgaarde, Erik(2008)
Studies 40 - Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria
Kosow, Hannah / Robert Gaßner(2008)
Studies 39