Externe Publikationen

Economic and distributional impacts of comprehensive and progressive agreement for trans-pacific partnership : the case of Vietnam

Maliszewska, Maryla / Zoryana Olekseyuk / Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Externe Publikationen (2018)

Tác động kinh tế và phân bổ thu nhập của Hiệp định Đối tác Toàn diện và Tiến bộ Xuyên Thái Bình Dương: Trường hợp của Việt Nam (Bilangual Publication / Ấn phẩm Song ngữ) Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Group (Working Paper 124022)

Volltext/Document

Vietnam is evaluating the economic gains from deepening regional trade integration under free trade agreements. The two major new agreements include Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to be signed in March 2018 following the US departure from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in January 2017 and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in its 21st round of negotiations. At the cross-roads, this paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on further trade integration of Vietnam by evaluating the economy-wide and distributional implications supporting the continuation of CPTPP despite the US departure and following up with RCEP. The innovative use of a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) linked with a top-down micro simulation model allow us to assess winners and losers within the country. It is well understood that the gains from trade are not equally shared by allsegments of the population. In such circumstances, analyzing the distributional consequences of each FTAs opens the discussion towards the implementation of policies to ameliorate the negative consequences of FTAs. This paper is organized as follows. Section II covers the main methodologicalaspects behind the simulations. This section describes the main assumptions of the CGE model and the top-down microsimulation model; defines broadly interventions in each scenario, and quantifies expected sectoral reductions in tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) in Vietnam and other FTA signatory countries. Section III presents economy-wide simulations results, trade diversion and creation effects and distributional impacts associated with each FTA. Section IV concludes.