The Current Column

The 2025 Bundestag Election

Outlook for the new legislature: Energy transition at sea

Ittner, Irit
The Current Column (2025)

Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), The Current Column of 10 February 2025

Bonn, 10 February 2025. The implementation of measures for the energy transition in the German North Sea and Baltic Sea as well as the sustainable design of future marine uses are long-term political tasks. Continuity is required in order to secure previous successes and to achieve sustainable development goals.

The tasks contribute decisively to the achievement of Goal 7 – affordable & clean energy, Goal 13 – climate action and Goal 14 – life below water.

The sea plays a very important role in Germany's energy supply. Even if political attention is focused on the growing wind farm areas in the North Sea, which already contributed 8.1 GW to the electricity supply in 2023 and are expected to grow to 40 GW by 2025 – a large proportion of fossil fuels in Germany come from oceans or are transported to Germany by pipeline or tankers. The most important German oil production site, Mittelplate in the North Sea, has received a concession extension until 2041. Natural gas has not been pumped out of the German North Sea since 2020. But Norwegian and Dutch imports are also North Sea gas. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been landed directly in Germany since 2022. In the past legislative period the number of countries increased from which LNG is taken, including autocratic countries where species protection, environmental protection and occupational health and safety receive less attention.

Germany upholds the protection of its marine biodiversity. It placed more than 45% of its sea area under protection. At the same time, since the 1970s, politicians have been pursuing an externalisation strategy that exposes the environment and local population in countries exporting oil and natural gas to risks and social problems. Through protests and complaints, major environmental associations and other civil society groups have increasingly demanded that countries take responsibility for their own consumption and pay attention to global environmental justice and climate protection. The last few years have been marked by considerable conflicts between the Scholz government, on the one hand, which promoted the expansion of offshore wind power as well as marine protection in a comprehensive maritime offensive, and climate activists, demonstrators and plaintiffs, on the other hand, who called for a more consistent implementation of existing environmental protection and climate laws or campaigned against LNG imports and new fossil projects.

Germany cannot yet supply itself with 100 percent renewable energy. But its share in the energy mix is steadily increasing – something which is also thanks to the Scholz government. For the new government, it will be important to assure the population, in a credible manner based on data, that domestic marine oil production and LNG imports will only be a short, specified, transitional period, so that the country still gets as close as possible to reaching the European climate targets. Expanding renewable energy is the best alternative, although even wind and solar farms can cause negative environmental impacts. Renewable energy assigns users more personal responsibility and thus also a higher level of maturity.

Germany also has a European responsibility for the energy transition at sea. The future establishment of marine energy networks and other transboundary energy projects requires reliable agreements, effective coordination and the support of EU member states, which would have difficulties in following the path of the marine energy transition with only their own financial resources. The current new entry into marine natural gas production in the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, as well as the tactically delayed exit of gas-exporting countries, must be countered with clever diplomacy at the European level in order to counteract obstacles to the exit from fossil marine projects in the European Union. The German government has so far been unable to attain a clear political rejection of a new transboundary gas production project in the North Sea.

It is a national responsibility to ensure that protected species, such as harbour porpoises, are not harmed by the industrialisation of the seas. Above all, there is a risk of construction noise, constant pollution and accidents. Many marine species are highly mobile. Their habitat consists of both designated marine protected areas and intermediate zones. More and more industrial plants for energy production are being built there. In order to be able to better assess environmental consequences, there is a need for a better data situation outside the protected areas (e.g. sediment maps), an update of marine spatial plans (including new expansion targets for wind energy) and a continued strong German commitment to multilateral working groups on marine governance (including the EU, OSPAR, UNESCO).