The Future of World Trade

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Whether it is the climate crisis, growing inequalities, or escalating geopolitical tensions — international trade policy faces significant challenges. The free trade doctrine — long seen as a driver of prosperity — is increasingly being displaced by a race for national interests, and protectionist measures are on the rise worldwide. While crucial multilateral solutions within the World Trade Organization (WTO) seem out of reach, trade relations are increasingly shaped through smaller, regional agreements or unilateral measures. Even the foundations of the global rules-based order are being questioned or deliberately undermined.

One thing is clear: global challenges can only be addressed through international cooperation. If designed properly, trade can effectively promote economic development, strengthen economic security, and advance climate action. This requires cooperative partnerships — especially with countries of the Global South/low- and middle-income countries. These countries are playing an increasingly important role as geopolitical actors and can be key to achieving both national and global goals, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Against this backdrop, trade experts at IDOS develop scientific analyses, dialogue formats, and concrete policy recommendations for sustainable and development-oriented trade policies. Current thematic priorities include:

Effectiveness and design of trade and environmental agreements
Options for reforming the multilateral trade and investment regime within the WTO and through plurilateral initiatives, such as the international agreement on Investment Facilitation
Impacts of current trade policies on low- and middle-income countries, e.g., the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) or U.S. tariff policies under Donald Trump
Global and regional integration of Africa, e.g., through the biennial conference "Africa in the Global Economy"

Team

Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement: potential gains
Balistreri, Edward J. / Zoryana Olekseyuk (2025)
in: The World Economy, first published 10 April 2025

Trump’s tariffs as a risk for the Global South and possible options
Kornher, Lukas / Clara Brandi (2025)
The Current Column of 24 March 2025

Handelsinstrumente müssen reformiert werden
Brandi, Clara (2025)
in: Frankfurter Rundschau, 04.03.2025

Securing a development-friendly US trade policy: the urgent need for an AGOA revamp
Britz, Wolfgang / Zoryana Olekseyuk / Tim Vogel (2025)
Policy Brief (2025)

Using trade provisions to make environmental agreements more dynamic
Morin, Jean-Frédéric Morin / Noémie Laurens / Clara Brandi / Jakob Schwab (2025)
in: International Studies Quarterly 69 (1), sqaf010

EU trade policy: dare for more flexibility and collaboration
Stender, Frederik / Tim Vogel (2024)
in: Christine Hackenesch / Niels Keijzer / Svea Koch (eds.), The European Union’s global role in a changing world: challenges and opportunities for the new leadership, Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), 14-17

“When you need it quick, let us ship it right”: on the importance of port efficiency and service quality to comply with food trade standards in Ghana
Kornher, Lukas / Daniel Sakyi / Linus Linnaeus Tannor (2024)
in: Review of World Economics, first published 28.07.2024

What role for aid for trade in (deep) PTA relations? Empirical evidence from gravity model estimations
Stender, Frederik / Tim Vogel (2024)
in: International Economics 181, article 100574

The Investment Facilitation Index (IFI): quantifying domestic investment facilitation frameworks
Berger, Axel / Ali Dadkhah / Florian Gitt / Zoryana Olekseyuk / Jakob Schwab (2024)
Geneva: International Trade Centre

Aid for trade and export performance of recipient countries: the moderating role of institutions
Aboushady, Nora / Georges Harb / Chahir Zaki (2024)
in: The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, first published 01.05.2024

The European supply chain law is coming after all – What can we make of the compromise?
Aboushady, Nora / Tilman Altenburg / Inga Carry / Jann Lay / Melanie Müller / Mark Schrolle / Frauke Steglich / Lea Strack / Tevin Tafese / Rainer Thiele (2024)
published on sustainablesupplychains.org, 28.06.2024

EU food price inflation amid global market turbulences during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war
Kornher, Lukas / Tomas Belezentis / Fabio Gaetano Santeramo (2024)
in: Applied Economics Perspectives and Policy, first published 13.10.2024

Combining the pieces: identifying key determinants of export diversification in Africa amidst model uncertainty
Vogel, Tim (2024)
in: Review of World Economics (06 November 2024)

Environmental agreements as clubs: evidence from a new dataset of trade provisions
Morin, Jean-Fréderic / Clara Brandi / Jakob Schwab (2023)
in: Review of International Organizations 19, 33-62

Reforming the WTO through inclusive and development-friendly plurilaterals
Berger, Axel / Sait Akman / Bozkurt Aran / Carlos P. Braga / Rajeev Kher / Douglas Lippoldt / Stormy-Annika Mildner / Arun Nair / Claudia Schmucker / Maarten Smeets (2023)
in: Journal of World Trade 57 (6), 875-888

Cling together, swing together: the contagious effects of COVID‐19 on developing countries through global value chains
Pahl, Stefan / Clara Brandi / Jakob Schwab / Frederik Stender (2021)
in: The World Economy 45 (2), 539-560