Stability and Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Project description

Background
More than ever, developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are affected by wars and unresolved conflicts. The war in Gaza has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people and has increasingly escalated into a regional conflict. Not only Israel and Hamas, but also Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi in Yemen are now involved in armed conflicts. At the same time, the fighting in Sudan is also ongoing, and the civil wars in Syria and Libya continue. Even Russia's war in Ukraine is affecting MENA countries because it has made their huge food imports extremely expensive. Many countries in the region are on the brink of insolvency. At the same time, political repression and surveillance are on the rise, minorities are increasingly marginalised and the consequences of climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources are further limiting development prospects in many MENA countries.

Paths towards inclusive and sustainable development in the region are more important, but also more challenging than ever. In view of this, local reform forces and initiatives are struggling, but their efforts and inventiveness are of central importance. So far, however, economic policy has succeeded only in very few countries in the region in finding sufficient new sources of income. Foreign investors are difficult to attract in view of the political tensions and a lack of rule of law, not least because some external and internal actors are still showing little interest in resolving the conflicts. Hopes are currently pinned, among other things, on the production and export of renewable energies and services.

In a research and policy advice project funded by the BMZ, the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) is investigating how international and Western donors can act in this context and better support local reform initiatives to promote economically, socially, ecologically and politically sustainable development.

Research and policy questions

The Middle East and North Africa in global politics

The first component of the project explores why certain MENA countries have literally imploded, and the role and influence of global and regional powers in these events.

The question can also be turned around: what influence do the latest developments in the MENA region have on global political, economic and environmental trends? How should German and European development, foreign and security policy respond to these trends? How can these policies be better interlinked? And what can Germany and the EU achieve in countries where there is neither security, nor a functioning state, or any other legitimate partners for cooperation?

A new social contract

The second component of the project deals with countries such as Egypt, Morocco and Jordan. These states have not collapsed in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, but they have proven more fragile than many observers had expected. Is there a danger that they too could break down in the future? Which factors could provoke this? What can the governments in these countries do to guarantee long-term stability? The project explores the potential for a new social contract that would protect the countries' internal cohesion. Which institutions and actors would be best placed to overcome the very profound social polarisation in the majority of these countries? And what support can Germany and Europe offer to the ongoing economic, social, environmental and political reform processes?

Repositioning the MENA countries in the global economy

The project’s third component examines the economic basis on which MENA countries can build their future development. How can they achieve broad-based and ecologically sustainable socio-economic welfare gains? What potential lies in promoting small business activities? How much can the use of renewable energy contribute to labour-intensive industrialisation? How can social systems be both expanded and made more equitable and sustainable? And how can today's expensive and not particularly sustainable food and energy subsidies be reduced?

Future cooperation with the MENA region

The project’s fourth component explores courses of action that still exist for conventional development cooperation in the MENA region in the face of diminishing resources from western donor countries and growing contributions from new donor countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, China). German and European development policy may face new foreign policy challenges, such as the prospect that some countries in the region may not want Western aid any longer, preferring instead to secure more support from the Gulf states.

Project objectives

The project bases its advisory work for policy makers in Germany, Europe and the MENA region on its research results. The objectives are to:

• identify ways that German and European actors can contribute to stabilisation and development in the MENA region under changing regional and national conditions
• advise the MENA state governments on how they can develop strategies for sustainable economic development and political transformation
• outline institutions and processes that will lead to a higher degree of stability and cooperation in the region.

Academic studies and papers, policy briefs, short position papers and press releases are to be produced as part of the project in order to provide publicly available information on the various issues. In addition, podium discussions, workshops and conferences will be organised during which academics, journalists and politicians will discuss controversial questions regarding development and stability in the MENA region.

Events

How to map and measure quality of employment?

The MENA Region in the “Zeitenwende” Era: An Opportunity for Socially Just Transition?

La participation citoyenne au Maroc: Entre expériences passées et régionalisation avancée

Social Contracts in the MENA – Drivers of Change

International cooperation and socio-economic justice in a post-Covid19 MENA region

Perspectives for a Renewed Partnership Between Europe and MENA

Towards a new social contract for MENA

A new social contract for MENA

How to Deal with Autocratic Regimes?

Morocco: from ‚Arab Spring‘ to democratic governance?

Deutsch-französische Außen- und Entwicklungspolitik in Nordafrika

Unser Nachbar Algerien

Ägypten nach dem Arabischen Frühling

Tunesien zwei Jahre nach der Revolution

Wie lässt sich der Arabische Frühling retten?

Macroeconomic impacts and employment effects of solar and wind energy production in the EU and MENA until 2050

Wasser als Waffe des IS

Bewältigung von Flüchtlingskrisen