External publications

Sunrise and sunset: Accelerating coal phase-down and green energy expansion in Vietnam - a political economy analysis

Wengel, Florian / Christoph Nedopil / Ulrich Volz
External Publications (2023)

London/Shanghai: Green Finance & Development Center / FISF Fudan University / Centre for Sustainable Finance, SOAS University of London

Volltext/Full text

Vietnam's Power Development Plan VIII heralds a new era for the generation of electricity in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. To meet future growth in electricity demand while transitioning towards a carbon neutral economy, Vietnam endeavours to expand the capacity of renewable energy (RE) sources massively and develop other low carbon energy sources towards 2050. Despite growing concerns regarding the future economic viability of coal-fired power stations and their negative externalities, Vietnam still plans to construct a (yet downsized) pipeline of coal power stations until 2030. Subsequently, between 2030 and 2050 Vietnam aspires to gradually refurbish and phase out the entire fleet of coal-fired power stations, conditional on international support. Political economy factors have shaped decision making in Vietnam’s energy sector. These factors reveal a nuanced picture of the obstacles and drivers of early coal phase out. Our analysis illustrates how different political economy factors are influencing the energy transition in Vietnam away from fossil fuels.