External publications

Cross-border risks of a global economy in mid-transition

Espagne, Etienne / William Oman / Jean-François Mercure / Romain Svartzman / Ulrich Volz et al.
External Publications (2023)

in: IMF Working Paper No. 2023/184

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This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition - a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace - could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.