External publications

Climate change impacts and vulnerability of fallow-chickpea based farm households in India : assessment using integrated modeling approach

Nedumaran, Swamikannu / Madhu Kadiyala / Srinivasa Reddy Srigiri / V. Roberto / S. McDermid
External Publications (2018)

(Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists Vancouver)

Volltext/Document

The rainfed farming in India is characterized by low productivity, frequent weather variability, policy bias,
poor market and infrastructure and degraded natural resources, which leads to low farm income and farm
households vulnerability. Along with these challenges, changing climate and socio-economic conditions in
the future are serious threat to the rainfed farming and household farm profitability. In this paper we use
the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment (RIA) methods which integrates climate, crop and economic
modeling to assess potential impacts of climate change on economic vulnerability of farm households,
average farm net returns and poverty in semi-arid region of Andhra Pradesh, India. This study used the
socio-economic data from representative household survey, together with down-scaled climate data, sitespecific
crop model simulations. The simulation results shows that the majority of fallow-chickpea based
farm households are vulnerable (68% in warmer climate and 42% in wet climate) to climate change if
current production systems are used in the future. Vulnerability is not uniform across the Kurnool district
and climate impacts vary across climate scenarios. Therefore, development and promotion of location
specific adaptation strategies linking technologies, policies and infrastructure is need to improve the
resilience and adaptive capacity of farm rainfed farm households to climate change.