External publications

Beyond payback and sweet talk: how the EU can outsmart Trump’s tariff gambit

published on www.globalpolicyjournal.com, 06.03.2025

Volltext/Full text

Donald Trump is back on the global stage, and with him, the specter of tariffs. After strong-arming Mexico and Canada with duties – ostensibly under the guise of national security – the European Union (EU) is now in his firing line. With tariffs on the horizon, the EU is bracing for tit-for-tat retaliation. First on the agenda? Likely reactivating the 2018 list of counter-tariffs, targeting iconic U.S. products. While the list may expand, the strategy seems to remain unchanged: Hitting Trump-friendly red states while minimizing economic impact on EU consumers. The EU has another previously undebated, at least publicly, opportunity to turn retaliation into an advantage by leveraging its commitment to multilateralism. Why not link multilateral tariff reductions to items on the EU retaliation target list? This could shield the EU from price hikes while sending a strong message: The EU is ready to back its multilateral rhetoric with concrete action. By offering a multilateral deal, the EU could position itself as a reliable partner, strengthen its economic security, and restore trust in the rules-based trading system.

About the IDOS authors

Stender, Frederik

Economist

Vogel, Tim

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Berger, Axel

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Brandi, Clara

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Gitt, Florian

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Goedeking, Nicholas

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Haug, Sebastian

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Kachelmann, Matthias

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Kornher, Lukas

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Kötter, Elizabeth Chepkemboi

 

Li, Hangwei

Political Science 

Novoselova, Anna

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Nowack, Daniel

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Olekseyuk, Zoryana

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Stewart, Benjamin

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Volz, Ulrich

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Wehrmann, Dorothea

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Wingens, Christopher

Political Science