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The international dimension of autocratisation and its prevention: linking an actor-centred approach with a concept of external autocracy prevention

Bonn: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn (Dissertation)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.48565/bonndoc-502
Open access

Democratic achievements resulting from political transformation processes of the 20th century are globally threatened by a manifesting third wave of autocratisation. Driven by trends of increasing political polarisation, populist leadership styles, and the gradual curtailment of core democratic institutions, this wave poses a challenge to democracy worldwide. While many of the challenges to democracy must first and foremost be addressed by the societies concerned, the policy field of international democracy promotion is confronted with the challenge of readjusting established strategies to promote democracy in the sense of a stronger focus on the protection of democracy. So far, only a few scientific studies have been conducted on the practice of international democracy protection and the effectiveness of measures to prevent autocratisation. However, the comparatively young field of research on international democracy protection is increasingly gaining momentum, while it is still characterised by a low level of conceptualisation and theorisation as well as an inconsistent use of central concepts and operationalisations. Taking up these research gaps, I examine the question: how do external factors contribute to the prevention of autocratisation. To address this research question, I first develop the external autocracy prevention as a guiding concept and a decision theory that focuses on the decision-making process of incumbents and takes into account external factors in the assessment of costs and benefits. Based on theoretical considerations, I derive hypotheses about the influence of external democracy protection measures and international context conditions on autocratisation processes, i.e. on the decisions of incumbents to initiate them. For the analysis, I apply a mixed-methods design that combines a quantitative cross-national macro-analysis with two qualitative case studies on autocratisation processes in Senegal and Indonesia. The findings of my work contribute empirically, theoretically, and conceptually to different strands of literature, most notably to the field of international democracy protection. Lastly, my findings are highly relevant for ongoing policy discussions among pro-democratic foreign policy-makers about how to prevent autocratisation from abroad.

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Wingens, Christopher

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